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Season review for 2017-18 fantasy hockey season

Now that the Washington Capitals have wrapped up their championship season for 2017-2018, it’s getting kind of late to look back at the fantasy season hockey that was, but better now than never.  I feel like looking back on my season-long fantasy leagues is a good way to assess my recent strategies, and it also helps me figure out the larger lessons to be learned from the game.  I can then review these lessons at the start of the next season to prepare myself for a new, successful season.

With that said, I want to turn my attention back to the 2017-2018 fantasy hockey season.  Because I never got around to doing a draft review, here is an abbreviated one, starting with my league’s rules.

League Settings

Draft type Snake
Teams 10
Scoring Head-to-head Points, 10-category
Roster positions C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, Util, Util, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, IR, IR
Categories Forwards/Defensemen Stat Category

Goals (G): 6, Assists (A): 4, Plus/Minus (+/-): 2, Powerplay Points (PPP): 2, Shots on Goal (SOG): 0.9, Blocks (BLK): 1

Goaltenders Stat Category

Wins (W): 5, Goals Against (GA): -3, Saves (SV): 0.6, Shutouts (SHO): 5
Playoff teams 6

 

 

 

My Draft Strategy: Zeroing in on Scarcity

At the time of the draft last Fall, I had the second pick and decided to use a slightly contrarian pick by drafting Brent Burns (Connor McDavid was taken first), and this merits some discussion.  Burns was the top point generator from the previous season according to the league’s point system with 880 points (McDavid was second with 823 points). By drafting Burns, my hope was to get a repeat point performance while capturing an advantage in scarcity because defensemen as a whole trail far behind forwards in point production.  It is far easier to find production among forwards on the waiver wire during the season than it is to find production among defensemen, so taking the top defender was a key strategy in building a successful team.

I also need to add that in custom points leagues, it is crucial to review the past season’s point production for your specific league instead of relying on general fantasy hockey rankings.  If you see that the top point producers in your league are out of sync with general rankings, then you should investigate why this is.  I was in a league a few years ago where this happened, and I noticed that a lot of mediocre players were among the most valuable players in the league because the category of Faceoffs Won was over-valued.  Needless to say, I seem to have been perhaps the only manager who caught this on draft day, and I used it to dominate the league for the two years I was in it.

Because I had the second overall pick, I had to wait a long time for my next pick in Round 2.  Having learned from past seasons about the importance of cornering the goalie categories, I decided I needed to make my move now and took goalies with my next several picks – Cam Talbot at #19 and Corey Crawford at #22.  I also drafted goalie John Gibson with my fourth pick (#39 overall), which allowed me to have a considerable advantage against any opponent in those goalie stats.  While drafting three goalies in the first four rounds might look like a luxury, it ended up being a necessity after Crawford got injured and missed about half the season.  This strategy, of course, meant that I suffered from serious disadvantages in other categories, but I correctly anticipated that those could be addressed in later rounds.

In the next few rounds I continued to shore up on defensemen with quality picks in the fifth round (Shea Weber, #42 overall) and seventh round (P.K. Suban, #62) It wasn’t until my sixth pick that I drafted a forward with Patrice Bergeron, and additional forwards were drafted in rounds 8-13.

Here is how my draft ended:

1. (2) Brent Burns (SJ – D)
2. (19) Cam Talbot (Edm – G)
3. (22) Corey Crawford (Chi – G)
4. (39) John Gibson (Anh – G)
5. (42) Shea Weber (Mon – D)
6. (59) Patrice Bergeron (Bos – C)
7. (62) P.K. Subban (Nsh – D)
8. (79) Aleksander Barkov (Fla – C)
9. (82) Alexander Radulov (Dal – RW)
10. (99) Brayden Schenn (StL – C,LW)
11. (102) Jonathan Huberdeau (Fla – LW)
12. (119) Ryan Strome (Edm – C,RW)
13. (122) Jakob Silfverberg (Anh – LW,RW)
14. (139) Antti Raanta (Ari – G)
15. (142) Anders Lee (NYI – LW)
16. (159) Ryan O’Reilly (Buf – C)
17. (162) Jakub Vrana (Was – LW,RW)
18. (179) Alex DeBrincat (Chi – LW,RW)
19. (182) Nick Leddy (NYI – D)

So how did my draft strategy work out?

By the end of the regular season, my team had a record of 15-5 (.750 %), which was good for first place in my league.  However, I had only the second-highest scoring team in my league with 8430 points (average of 421 points-per-week).  In comparison, the highest team had 8632 points (431 ppw), and the average across all teams was 7850 points (392 ppw).

Based on these results, my draft strategy worked well.  What’s interesting to me is that my team generated a lot of points despite the fact that Burns, my top pick (#2 overall), decreased in point production by about 130 points, or -15%.  This meant that I had a balanced team and therefore didn’t have to rely on any single player to carry my team.  I didn’t have any of the top ten skaters on my team, but I did have four of the top 25, seven of the top 50, and ten of the top 75.  I also had three of the top 20 goalies in the league, and I think this really helped give my team a boost considering the scarcity of quality goaltenders.

Lessons learned

It turns out that scarcity played a very important role in point production in my league, so drafting based on strategic considerations of player value rather than player ranking is important.  It’s key to remember that most good forwards aren’t incredibly valuable on a fantasy team because there are a lot of productive forwards that are drafted in late rounds or picked off the waiver wire.  In contrast, good defensemen and goalies are more valuable because they are scarcer.

Does this mean there’s a “magic formula” when it comes to fantasy hockey drafts?  Should I draft Goalie-Defenseman-Goalie in the first three rounds, or some similar combination?  No, I don’t think there is such a standard drafting formula.  A draft strategy may differ depending on league settings (e.g. category vs. points league), but in general I would try to:

  • Establish dominance in goalie categories by Round 5-6
  • Aim for two Top-5 defensemen by Round 5-6
  • Once goalie and defensemen talent has considerably dropped, target forwards

There might be circumstances which make this strategy unworkable, but in general it’s a good blueprint for success.  Using it generally, my past two seasons have helped me stick near the top of my leagues, and I hope to use it again for success in the 2018-2019 season.

 

 

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Scratching and clawing my way through the fantasy baseball playoffs

The fantasy baseball playoffs began for me last week in two leagues, and today I’d like to focus on one of my leagues (Old MLB Style Rules League).  I unfortunately did not do a draft review for the league, so I’ll do a generalized version of how the season has played out so far.

League Settings

Draft type Snake (3rd pick)
Teams 10
Scoring Head-to-head points
Roster positions C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL, NA
Playoff teams  4

The Draft

I came out of the draft with what I thought was a strong team compared to my league opponents.  Not only did I get a position player who could end the season as the #1 hitter in Kris Bryant, but I got a pitcher who could also very well end up at the top of the pitching chart in Madison Bumgarner.  Getting Andrew McCutchen late in the fourth round seemed like a value pick considering he was drafted as a top-three overall pick just a few years ago, but getting a top catcher in Jonathan Lucroy gave me competency at the hard-to-fill catcher position.  Here is how I drafted (* denotes player still on my team at end of the regular season):

Narnia Nitro
1. (3) Kris Bryant (ChC – 1B,3B,OF)*
2. (18) Madison Bumgarner (SF – SP)*
3. (23) Starling Marte (Pit – OF)
4. (38) Andrew McCutchen (Pit – OF)
5. (43) Johnny Cueto (SF – SP)*
6. (58) Matt Carpenter (StL – 1B,2B,3B)
7. (63) Jonathan Lucroy (Col – C,1B)
8. (78) Alex Bregman (Hou – 3B,SS)
9. (83) Adam Jones (Bal – OF)
10. (98) Addison Russell (ChC – SS)
11. (103) Craig Kimbrel (Bos – RP)*
12. (118) Danny Salazar (Cle – SP)
13. (123) Matt Harvey (NYM – SP)
14. (138) Kevin Gausman (Bal – SP)
15. (143) Brandon Belt (SF – 1B,OF)
16. (158) Dellin Betances (NYY – RP)
17. (163) Vince Velasquez (Phi – SP)
18. (178) Francisco Liriano (Hou – SP,RP)
19. (183) Jorge Soler (KC – OF)
20. (198) Sean Manaea (Oak – SP)

Things went downhill shortly after the season began.  Bryant did not hit for power early on in the season and was only a little better than average.  Marte was hit with an 80-game suspension in April which forced me to drop him.  In the same month, Bumgarner got hurt in a dirt bike accident and had to go on the DL for two months.  Lucroy, Matt Carpenter, and Johnny Cueto all had off years, and Alex Bregman did not materialize into the premier third basemen that I had hoped for.  And lastly, McCutchen started out so poorly that on May 23, he had a pathetic .200 batting average.  I ended cutting him soon thereafter.

Despite the troubles of my drafted team, several key pickups helped prop-up my team so that I enjoyed some early success.  Feasting on the waiver wire, I took Greg Holland, who provided me with a bounty of saves early in the season; Mike Leake provided wins and a low ERA through the month of May; Steven Souza, Mark Reynolds, Justin Bour, and Justin Smoak were cheap sources of power; and relief pitchers like Chris Devenski and Raisel Iglesisas also qualified as starting pitchers, which meant I enjoyed a sneaky source of points.  I also can’t forget Zack Cozart, Paul DeJong, and Whit Merrifield who ended up providing a lot of value for my infield positions.

Making the playoffs

By the middle of the season, my record was 8-3.  The rest of the season was mediocre, though, and my record at seasons-end was 13-9.  Several teams had surpassed me in wins and my season looked rather bleak.  In the last week of the regular season (September 3-9), I was the #5 team in the league and was about to get knocked out of playoff contention (only four teams made the playoffs).  A last-ditch push by my team, and a floundering by the #4 team, meant that I snuck in to the playoffs by the skin of my teeth.

I think my experience underscores one of the truths about season-long fantasy sports leagues.  The key goal at the beginning of the season is never to build a team that will win you your championship.  Instead, the key goal is to build a team that will get you into the playoffs.  There is a difference.  Once you get into the playoffs, things seem to change like night and day.  You’re no longer operating on the long-term mindset that you have at the beginning of the season.

In the first round of the playoffs (semi-finals), I faced CinciRedlegs, a team that went 18-4 during the regular season and that beat me convincingly three times already.   It was close to a David-vs.-Goliath match, and I knew I had to be scrappy in order to win.  To do this, I had to max-out my six weekly acquisitions by streaming pitchers who were starting on particular days when my regular starting pitchers were not playing.  This strategy requires some planning to implement, and the key is to start early in the week and pick-and-choose favorable matchups to maximize results (I use Fantasypros’ pitcher planner to help anticipate favorable games).  Chances are that the pitchers on the waiver wire who are available to stream are inferior to begin with and are potential liabilities on days when they play difficult opponents.  If you wait until the end of the week to start streaming pitchers your selection of players to choose from is really limited, and you also run into the problem of lacking enough roster spots for them.

I was able to benefit from the Cleveland Indians real-life baseball team’s ultra-long winning streak by streaming Indians pitchers, and by the end of the playoff week I had surprisingly built a comfortable lead in points over my opponent.  In the middle of the week, CinciRedlegs apparently took note of my push toward streaming pitchers, and he followed suit.  However, it was too little too late, and I held on for the victory in points.

On to the championship round

Having made it to the final round of the playoffs, I am continuing to stream pitchers with promising matchups.  In the one-week championship matchup, I am facing Water Boyz, another strong team that finished the season with a record of 18-4.  It will be a feat to overcome this opponent, but I have pulled out to around a 35-point lead as of today (Wednesday, September 20).

Streaming pitchers in this round presents a new issue because it’s the final week of the season.  During prior weeks, I would have a set core of good starting pitchers on my team that I would hold (Bumgarner, Cueto, etc.), and if I needed to stream a pitcher I would drop the worst starting pitcher on my roster.  But in the championship round, when I pick up a new starting pitcher, I tend to drop any pitcher who will not make another start for me for the rest of the week.  I am limited to picking up six players in any one week, so if I want to maximize the points my team can generate I need to hold just about any pitcher who will make another start before the end of the week.  This becomes tricky when I have to forecast whether or not a certain pitcher will make one last start before the end of the week, but I think it’s truly a way to maximize the number of points my team will put up.

We’ll see how all of this plays out in a few days.  I would not be surprised if Water Boyz comes charging back in the next few days given the strength of his pitching, and I have already used up four of six of my acquisitions for this week.  I anticipate picking up two more starting pitchers between now and Sunday when the season comes to a close.  Hopefully I’ll be able to hold him off.

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Fantasy football snake draft review for a 16-team league

I have been part of a college friends league for the past seven or eight years and it’s the one football league in which I have the most invested emotionally. Most of the managers are of the casual type, but the size of the league makes it hard to actually win the whole thing. In addition, it’s a very shallow league with only two bench spots per team. This makes it aggravating and yet strategically exciting at the same time. I have only won the championship once, but last year I tore things up with an all-star team and a 12-2 regular season record before getting dropped in the first round of the playoffs. This year the league added two more teams which means talent is even harder to come by.

football-31334_640The league uses Fleaflicker, and old-school fantasy sports platform that I have come to realize utilizes somewhat absurd rankings and player projections. I realized that I could use that to my advantage by waiting on certain players I wanted on my team because I knew they would likely be available in later rounds. After all, fantasy managers typically follow the default draft rankings in whatever software platform they are using.

I did around half a dozen mock drafts in preparation until I settled on one strategy that seemed the most promising. I figured that I would take A.J. Green (FantasyPros overall rank #6) in the first round, then another wide receiver like Brandon Marshall (#15) or Alshon Jeffrey (#26) in the second round, before targeting a running back like Matt Forte (#46) or possibly Jeremy Langford (#44) in the third round. When doing my mock drafts, I was pleasantly surprised to see that Coby Fleener (#79) was still available on my turn, so my plan was to take him there.

The first few rounds

Of course, mock drafts only mildly predict what will happen in actual drafts, so when it came to real draft time, things went quite differently. First of all, I was thrilled when it came to my turn in the first rounds and lo and behold, who is still waiting to be picked, but Julio Jones (#2)? I’m not exactly sure how he managed to stay there, but he’s an upgrade over A.J. Green and could plausibly be the #1 non-QB player in all of fantasy this year.

With my second pick, I took Dez Bryant. I think the impact of Tony Romo‘s injury might be overestimated, and Bryant’s consistent history suggests that he can still play at a top level this year. Besides, with Romo’s potential return in Week 9, Bryant’s performance should only go up over the course of the season. The fact that Dallas has one of the easiest schedules for wide receivers only sweetens the pot.

Since Matt Forte was off the board when it came to my turn in Round 3, I instead went with Latavius Murray (#31), who had been passed over and was actually fifteen spots higher in the FantasyPros overall draft rankings. In Round 4, I took the one player that had slipped way too low on Fleaflicker’s draft rankings (somewhere around #67) – Jarvis Landry (#34). I was really targeting him with that pick and I would have kicked myself someone else had drafted him, but fortunately for me he was buried quite deep and not one else seemed to notice him there.

The later rounds

So far, my draft was proceeding better than I had hoped, but it was about to change. Going into the fifth round, there was a run on tight ends. Delanie Walker, Travic Kelce, and Gary Barnidge went off the board with three of the first four picks of the round. Then, Coby Fleener was taken. Not only can he potentially produce great numbers on the New Orleans offense, but the drop off in tight end production seems to begin right after him. Once Fleener was off the board I realized it was in a jam and had no clear-cut choice to make at tight end.

I decided I would wait on tight end and pick up someone like Julius Thomas (#15) in a later round, which I ended up doing in Round 11. So I switched gears and instead chose the Arizona defense (#2 in DST rankings). I know that conventional wisdom says to wait on defense, but in my particular league’s scoring settings, defenses are rewarded particularly well. In fact, top defenses in the league are comparable in points scored to the top flex players. In fact, in 2015 the Denver DST outscored the top wide receiver, Antonio Brown, by three points. Because of this, choosing Arizona was a prudent choice.

With the rest of my draft I filled in my remaining positions which included quarterback (Matthew Stafford in Round 6), bench spots (Melvin Gordon and Marvin Jones), and IDP spots. All indications point to Stafford having a tremendous year in his pass-happy offense, and the fact that Detroit faces the second-worst defenses against QBs persuaded me to pick him over a similarly good quarterback, Derek Carr (I would have chosen Carr had Stafford not been available). As for Gordon and Jones, well these two players were simply too good to pass up late in the draft. We’ll see soon enough whether or not they become legitimate weapons.

Assessing my draft

grandstand-987913_640In the beginning of the season, all players seem to have upside, and perhaps even crazy potential. The unknown can be tantalizing at times, but the first few week or two deflate these kinds of ideas and reality asserts itself once again. This attraction to potential leads me to pursue some of my players, particularly Julius Thomas and Matthew Stafford, but I really can’t tell for sure whether they’ll be as successful as I hope. But my other players – including my core of Jones, Bryant, Landry, and to some extent, Murray – give me more confidence that they will produce throughout the season.

In relation to the other teams in my league, I would say my team is highly competitive. I do have a few areas of concern that I may need to address, depending on the performance I see during the first few weeks. Can I upgrade my tight end? Will Murray be the productive workhorse that I hope he will be? Will Marvin Jones flourish or flounder with Detroit? And will this be Gordon’s year to break out?

I like to maximize the potential of each and every roster spot that I have so that I have as many top ten players at each position as I can. This will take some work, but as I already know, successful fantasy teams aren’t built in a (draft) day.